An expert-based system to predict population survival rate from health data.

Timely detection and understanding of causes for population decline are essential for effective wildlife management and conservation. Assessing trends in population size has been the standard approach, but we propose that monitoring population health could prove more effective. We collated data from 7 bottlenose dolphin (Tursiops truncatus) populations in the southeastern United States to develop a method for estimating survival probability based on a suite of health measures identified by experts as indices for inflammatory, metabolic, pulmonary, and neuroendocrine systems. We used logistic regression to implement the veterinary expert system for outcome prediction (VESOP) within a Bayesian analysis framework. We fitted parameters with records from 5 of the sites that had a robust network of responders to marine mammal strandings and frequent photographic identification surveys that documented definitive survival outcomes. We also conducted capture-mark-recapture (CMR) analyses of photographic identification data to obtain separate estimates of population survival rates for comparison with VESOP survival estimates. The VESOP analyses showed that multiple measures of health, particularly markers of inflammation, were predictive of 1- and 2-year individual survival. The highest mortality risk 1 year following health assessment related to low alkaline phosphatase (odds ratio [OR] = 10.2 [95% CI: 3.41-26.8]), whereas 2-year mortality was most influenced by elevated globulin (OR = 9.60 [95% CI: 3.88-22.4]); both are markers of inflammation. The VESOP model predicted population-level survival rates that correlated with estimated survival rates from CMR analyses for the same populations (1-year Pearson's r = 0.99, p = 1.52 × 10-5 ; 2-year r = 0.94, p = 0.001). Although our proposed approach will not detect acute mortality threats that are largely independent of animal health, such as harmful algal blooms, it can be used to detect chronic health conditions that increase mortality risk. Random sampling of the population is important and advancement in remote sampling methods could facilitate more random selection of subjects, obtainment of larger sample sizes, and extension of the approach to other wildlife species.

Un sistema basado en conocimiento experto para predecir la tasa de supervivencia a partir de datos de salud Resumen La detección y el entendimiento oportunos de la declinación poblacional son esenciales para que el manejo y la conservación de fauna tengan efectividad. La evaluación de las tendencias en el tamaño poblacional ha sido la estrategia estándar, pero proponemos que el monitoreo de la salud poblacional podría ser más efectivo. Recopilamos datos de siete poblaciones de delfines (Tursiops truncatus) en el sureste de Estados Unidos para desarrollar un método de estimación de la probabilidad de supervivencia con base en un conjunto de medidas sanitarias identificadas por expertos como índices para los sistemas inflamatorio, metabólico, pulmonar y neuroendocrino. Usamos la regresión logística para implementar el sistema de expertos veterinarios para la predicción de resultados (SEVPR) en un análisis bayesiano. Ajustamos los parámetros con los registros de cinco sitios que contaban con una buena red de respondientes a los varamientos de mamíferos marinos y censos de identificación fotográfica (foto-ID) que documentaron los resultados de supervivencia definitivos. También realizamos análisis de marcaje-recaptura (MR) en los datos de identificación fotográfica para obtener estimados separados de las tasas de supervivencia poblacional para compararlos con los estimados del SEVPR. Los análisis del SEVPR mostraron que varias medidas sanitarias, particularmente los marcadores de inflamación son buenos predictores de la supervivencia individual para uno y dos años. El riesgo de mortalidad más alto un año después de la valoración sanitaria se relacionó con una fosfatasa alcalina baja (cociente de probabilidades de 10.2 [95% CI 3.41-26.8]), mientras que la mortalidad a los dos años estuvo más influenciada por una globulina elevada (9.60 [95% CI 3.88-22.4]); ambas son marcadores de la inflamación. El modelo del SEVPR predijo las tasas de supervivencia a nivel poblacional en correlación con las tasas estimadas de supervivencia de los análisis de MR para las mismas poblaciones (Pearson de un año r = 0.99, p = 1.52e-05; dos años r = 0.94, p = 0.001). Aunque nuestra propuesta no detecta las amenazas agudas de mortalidad que en su mayoría son independientes de la salud animal, como la proliferación de algas nocivas, puede usarse para detectar las condiciones crónicas de salud que incrementan el riesgo de mortalidad. Es importante el muestreo aleatorio de la población y los avances en los métodos de muestreo remoto podrían facilitar una selección más aleatoria de los sujetos, la obtención de muestras de mayor tamaño y la expansión de la estrategia a otras especies de fauna.

Specialization of a mobile, apex predator affects trophic coupling among adjacent habitats.

Mobile, apex predators are commonly assumed to stabilize food webs through trophic coupling across spatially distinct habitats. The assumption that trophic coupling is common remains largely untested, despite evidence that individual behaviors might limit trophic coupling. We used stable isotope data from common bottlenose dolphins across the Gulf of Mexico to determine if these apex predators coupled estuarine and adjacent, nearshore marine habitats. δ13C values differed among the sites, likely driven by environmental factors that varied at each site, such as freshwater input and seagrass cover. Within most sites, δ13C values differed such that dolphins sampled in the upper reaches of embayments had values indicative of estuarine habitats while those sampled outside or in lower reaches of embayments had values indicative of marine habitats. δ15N values were more similar among and within sites than δ13C values. Data from multiple tissues within individuals corroborated that most dolphins consistently used a narrow range of habitats but fed at similar trophic levels in estuarine and marine habitats. Because these dolphins exhibited individual habitat specialization, they likely do not contribute to trophic coupling between estuarine and adjacent marine habitats at a regional scale, suggesting that not all mobile, apex predators trophically couple adjacent habitats.

Serum correlation, demographic differentiation, and seasonality of blubber testosterone in common bottlenose dolphins, Tursiops truncatus, in Sarasota Bay, FL.

Blubber and serum testosterone levels were compared among 55 individual common bottlenose dolphins, Tursiops truncatus, in Sarasota Bay, FL during 2011-2019. A significant positive relationship between the matrices was found in male testosterone concentrations in 29 paired samples (r2 = 0.932). Mature males (n = 17) had 300 times greater mean testosterone concentration in serum than immature males (n = 17). A comparison of blubber samples, including 12 females, 24 immature males, and 19 mature males, revealed significant differences in mean blubber testosterone values among all three demographics. Immature males had greater than 6 times the average blubber testosterone concentration of females and mature males had almost 100 times that of immature males. Estimated testis volume was highly correlated with blubber testosterone concentration and mature males had 60 times greater average testis volume than immature males. We observed seasonal variation in blubber testosterone in mature males, consistent with known reproductive patterns. These data suggest males can be distinguished from females and designated as mature or immature via blubber testosterone concentrations, an observation that validates dart biopsy sampling as a means of obtaining demographic data.